Are Market Players Mispricing Fedspeak?

A barrage of comments from FOMC members last week has bumped up market expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.  However, it’s not clear that market players are adjusting their rate expectations correctly; the U.S. Treasury curve has steepened (Figure 1). Continue reading Are Market Players Mispricing Fedspeak?

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“All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful”: Safe Asset Shortage Edition

“The national debt as a share of gross domestic product has more than doubled since 2007, to around 75%, but net interest payments on the debt have actually declined,” Continue reading “All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful”: Safe Asset Shortage Edition